If we had to make a prediction today (June 2026), our pick for the 2028 Democratic nominee would be:
Gavin Newsom
Estimated probability: ~25–30%
Why Newsom is our current favorite:
- He has the highest national profile among likely Democratic contenders.
- He is already positioning himself as a leading opponent of President Trump and is drawing national attention.
- Prediction markets currently place him ahead of the rest of the Democratic field.
- He has extensive fundraising networks and executive experience as governor of the nation’s largest state.
Main challengers
Kamala Harris (~20–25%)
- Still has very high name recognition.
- Some polls show her running neck-and-neck with Newsom.
- However, some Democratic strategists argue the party should move on from the 2024 ticket.
Josh Shapiro (~15–20%)
- Popular governor of a crucial swing state.
- Appeals to moderates and could be viewed as highly electable.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (~10–15%)
- Strong progressive base and significant appeal among younger voters.
- Frequently appears near the top of early 2028 discussions and polling.
Pete Buttigieg (~10%)
- Strong communicator and campaigner.
- Continues to poll competitively among Democratic voters.
Dark horses
- Gretchen Whitmer
- JB Pritzker
- Mark Kelly
- Andy Beshear
- Raphael Warnock
Our forecast today
Most likely nominee: Gavin Newsom
Most likely matchup: Newsom vs. Shapiro, with Harris remaining a major factor if she runs.
The biggest variable is the 2026 midterms. If Democrats perform strongly under a governor such as Shapiro, Whitmer, or Beshear, the race could change dramatically. As of mid-2026, though, Newsom appears to have the inside track.