Missouri Tigers vs Oklahoma Sooners Prediction – Scores and Odds

Missouri Tigers vs. Oklahoma Sooners Basketball Prediction
February 12, 2025 | Mizzou Arena, Columbia, MO

Missouri (17-6, 6-4 SEC) has lost two consecutive games, including a narrow 67-64 home defeat to Texas A&M. However, they boast a dominant 15-1 home record this season, making Mizzou Arena a formidable venue .
Oklahoma (16-7, 3-7 SEC) is struggling in SEC play, losing 7 of their last 10 games and suffering back-to-back blowouts (98-70 at Auburn, 70-52 vs. Tennessee). Their road performance is concerning, with a 1-4 record away from home .

Missouri’s Strengths: The Tigers rank 24th nationally in scoring (82.4 PPG) and excel in three-point shooting (37.5%). Key players include Tamar Bates (13.8 PPG) and Caleb Grill (47.7% from three) . However, their recent three-point struggles (5-of-21 vs. Texas A&M) could be exploited by Oklahoma’s perimeter defense, which allows just 28.8% from deep (9th in NCAA) .
Oklahoma’s Strengths: The Sooners average 78.5 PPG and rely on efficient shooting (47.6% FG). Jalon Moore (17.7 PPG) and Brycen Goodine (45.1% from three) lead the offense. However, their scoring dipped to 52 points against Tennessee, highlighting inconsistency .

Missouri’s defense allows 69.2 PPG (97th nationally) but struggles against the three (230th in opponent 3P%). Oklahoma’s three-point shooting (37.1%) could capitalize here .
Oklahoma’s defense (71.7 PPG allowed, 186th) has been porous recently, surrendering 89 PPG in their last two losses. Their rebounding (329th in rebounds per game) is a critical weakness against Missouri’s physicality .

Spread: Missouri is favored by 8.5–9.5 points. Despite their strong home record, the Tigers are just 3-9 ATS when favored by 9.5+ this season. Oklahoma, however, is 0-2 ATS as a 9.5+ underdog .
Total: The over/under is set at 151.5. While both teams average 160.9 combined PPG, recent defensive trends (e.g., Missouri’s under hitting in 4 of last 5 home games) suggest a lower-scoring affair .

Missouri’s backup center Trent Burns (foot) is out, but his limited role (2.9 PPG) minimizes impact . Oklahoma reports no injuries .

Winner: Missouri Tigers (-8.5). Home-court advantage and Oklahoma’s road struggles tilt this in Missouri’s favor. Expect a rebound performance from the Tigers’ shooters .
Score Projection: Missouri 78, Oklahoma 70.
Total: Under 151.5. Oklahoma’s strong three-point defense and Missouri’s recent shooting slumps point to a slower-paced game .

Key Bets:

Spread: Missouri -8.5 .
Total: Under 151.5 .
Player Prop: Jalon Moore Under 4.5 Rebounds (struggling on the glass recently) .

Bovada Moneyline: Missouri Tigers -490, Oklahoma Sooners 355