New York Knicks vs Boston Celtics NBA Playoffs Game 4 Prediction

New York Knicks vs. Boston Celtics NBA Playoffs Game 4 Prediction
May 12, 2025

The Knicks lead the series 2-1 after two dramatic comeback wins in Boston but suffered a 22-point loss in Game 3 at home. The Celtics regained momentum with a dominant performance, shooting 50% from three (20/40) and stifling the Knicks’ offense .
Boston’s road record (33-8 in the regular season) and recent adjustments in defensive intensity and three-point efficiency are critical factors .

Knicks: Jalen Brunson (averaging 24.3 PPG this series) remains the offensive anchor, but his supporting cast struggled in Game 3. Karl-Anthony Towns (21 points in Game 3) needs to improve efficiency after shooting 5/18, while OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges were limited by Boston’s defense .
Celtics: Jayson Tatum (22 points in Game 3) and Jaylen Brown (19 points, 9 assists) are pivotal. Payton Pritchard’s 23-point breakout off the bench adds depth, but Sam Hauser (ankle) remains doubtful, affecting bench scoring .

The Celtics tightened their defense in Game 3, forcing 11 turnovers and holding the Knicks to 20% three-point shooting. Al Horford and Kristaps Porzingis effectively contained Towns .
New York must address their three-point woes (5/25 in Game 3) and improve ball movement to counter Boston’s perimeter pressure .

Moneyline: Celtics are favored (-250 to -253) due to their road dominance and Game 3 resurgence. However, the Knicks’ home-court advantage and Brunson’s scoring potential offer value at +205 to +210 .
Spread: Boston -6.5 is projected to cover by models (51% chance), but the Knicks have covered in 4 of their last 5 against divisional opponents .
Total Points: The over/under is set at 209. Historical head-to-head averages (210.7 points) and Boston’s improved offense suggest potential for an over, though the under has hit in 49 of 89 combined Celtics/Knicks home/away games .

Outcome: Boston Celtics ML (-250)
Despite the Knicks’ resilience, Boston’s adjusted defense, three-point shooting, and road pedigree give them the edge. Jayson Tatum’s resurgence and Payton Pritchard’s bench contribution will likely outweigh New York’s home crowd advantage .
Spread: Celtics -6.5 (-110)
Boston’s ability to maintain double-digit leads (as in Game 3) and the Knicks’ offensive inconsistencies support this pick .
Player Prop: Jalen Brunson Over 27.5 Points (-118)
Brunson’s playoff pedigree (29.1 PPG average) and high usage rate make him a strong candidate to exceed this line, even against Boston’s defense .

Final Score Prediction: Celtics 108 – Knicks 101 .

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