Milwaukee Brewers vs Boston Red Sox Prediction
Game Date: Monday, May 26, 2025
Time: 2:10 PM ET
Venue: American Family Field, Milwaukee
Key Factors Influencing the Game
- Starting Pitching Matchup
- Red Sox (Garrett Crochet, LHP):
Crochet has been dominant this season, posting a 1.98 ERA and 78 strikeouts over 68.1 innings. He ranks fifth in MLB in strikeouts and has allowed two or fewer earned runs in five consecutive starts. His lone career start against Milwaukee last season saw him allow just one run over six innings. - Brewers (Chad Patrick, RHP):
The rookie Patrick holds a 3.23 ERA and has allowed three or fewer runs in all 11 starts this season. Notably, his home ERA (2.70) is significantly better than his road performance (4.12), and he limits opponents to a .228 batting average at American Family Field.
- Offensive Trends
- Red Sox:
Boston’s lineup averages 4.98 runs per game (5th in MLB) but has struggled recently, scoring just one run in each of their last two games against Baltimore. Key hitters include Rafael Devers (.299/.406/.539, 12 HR) and Jarren Duran (12 steals, .279 AVG), though they are missing Alex Bregman (quad injury). - Brewers:
Milwaukee’s offense ranks 25th in OPS (.664) and relies heavily on Rhys Hoskins (.288 AVG, 7 HR) and Christian Yelich (9 HR). Their lineup has scored 4+ runs in 7 of their last 8 games but struggles with consistency.
- Bullpen and Defense
- Boston’s bullpen (3.67 ERA, 12th in MLB) outperforms Milwaukee’s relievers (4.72 ERA, 24th). Closer Aroldis Chapman is 8-for-8 in save opportunities.
- Both teams have defensive vulnerabilities: Boston ranks 28th in strikeouts against (492), while Milwaukee allows the fifth-most walks (199).
- Home/Road Splits
- The Brewers are 15-10 at home, while the Red Sox are 11-14 on the road. Milwaukee’s Chad Patrick thrives at home, but Boston’s Crochet has neutralized opposing lineups regardless of venue.
- Betting Trends
- Red Sox: 5-6 SU/ATS in their last 11 games; 10-1 in day games vs. NL Central teams.
- Brewers: 6-5 SU in their last 11; 0-6 ATS as home underdogs this postseason.
Prediction Breakdown
- Moneyline: Red Sox (-160)
Crochet’s elite form and Boston’s offensive upside (despite recent slumps) give them the edge. Milwaukee’s lineup lacks the firepower to consistently challenge Crochet, especially with Bregman sidelined. - Total Runs: Under 7.5 (-115)
Both starters excel at limiting runs, and Boston’s bullpen adds security. The Under has hit in 5 of Boston’s last 6 games and 4 of Milwaukee’s last 5 day games. - Player Props:
- Rafael Devers (BOS) Over 0.5 HR (+210):
Devers has 12 HRs and thrives against right-handed pitching. Patrick has allowed 7 HRs this season. - Rhys Hoskins (MIL) Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120):
Hoskins has a .472 SLG at home and hits lefties well (.308 career vs. LHP).
Final Score Projection
Red Sox 4, Brewers 2
Crochet dominates with 6+ scoreless innings, while Boston’s lineup capitalizes on Patrick’s mid-game fatigue. Milwaukee’s bullpen struggles to contain Devers and Duran late. The Under cashes as both starters deliver quality outings.
Best Bets:
- Red Sox ML (-160)
- Under 7.5 (-115)
- Rafael Devers HR (+210)
For detailed stats and trends, refer to Sportsbook Wire and Winners and Whiners.