Saint Joseph’s Hawks vs. Saint Louis Billikens Prediction
February 7, 2025 | Atlantic 10 Conference Matchup
Key Insights and Analysis
- Game Overview
- Venue/Time: Michael J. Hagan ’85 Arena, Philadelphia (9:00 PM ET, ESPNU) .
- Odds: Saint Joseph’s is a 6.5-point favorite, with a total set at 145.5 .
- Team Performance Trends
- Saint Joseph’s (13-9, 4-5 A-10):
- Averaging 75.2 PPG (157th nationally) but struggling against the spread (8-14 ATS) .
- Strong at home (8-4 record) but lost three straight ATS and shot poorly (29.1% FG) in their last game .
- Key players: Rasheer Fleming (15.5 PPG, 9.2 REB) and Xzayvier Brown (16.1 PPG) .
- Saint Louis (14-9, 7-3 A-10):
- Won 7 of their last 10 games, including a road victory over UMass .
- Gibson Jimerson (17.8 PPG) and Isaiah Swope (16.5 PPG) lead the offense, but the team is 8-13 ATS .
- Defense allows 69.2 PPG (106th nationally) .
- Head-to-Head and Trends
- Saint Louis dominated the first meeting this season (73-57), holding Saint Joseph’s to 32.8% FG .
- Billikens have won 8 of the last 10 matchups, including 4 of 5 at Saint Joseph’s home court .
- Underdog Advantage: The underdog has covered the spread in 8 of the last 10 meetings .
- Betting and Statistical Angles
- Spread: Saint Joseph’s is 3-7 ATS as a 6.5-point favorite, while Saint Louis covered once as a +6.5 underdog .
- Total Points:
- Combined average: 149.2 PPG (3.7 over the line), but Saint Louis’ games hit the under in 81% of cases this season .
- Saint Joseph’s recent poor shooting (e.g., 3/19 from three vs. Loyola Chicago) supports an under lean .
- Injury Report
- Saint Louis: Out—AJ Casey, Larry Hughes Jr., Josiah Dotzler; Kellen Thames (questionable) .
- Saint Joseph’s: Missing Khaafiq Myers and Steven Solano .
Prediction
- Spread: Saint Louis +6.5
Despite Saint Joseph’s home advantage, Saint Louis’ recent form (7-3 in last 10 games) and historical dominance in this matchup (8-2 in last 10) suggest they can cover. The Hawks’ ATS struggles as favorites further bolster this pick . - Total: Under 145.5
Saint Louis’ trend toward low-scoring games (4-17 to the under) and Saint Joseph’s recent offensive slumps align with a defensive battle . - Final Score: Saint Joseph’s 72, Saint Louis 68
A tight game with Saint Louis covering the spread, but the Hawks edging it out at home due to rebounding (37.5 RPG) and free-throw efficiency (75.1%) .
Bovada Odds: Saint Joseph’s Hawks -238, Saint Louis Billikens 195