Oklahoma State Cowboys vs Arizona State Sun Devils Prediction

February 9, 2025 | Gallagher-Iba Arena, Stillwater, OK

Game Overview

The Oklahoma State Cowboys (11-11, 3-8 Big 12) host the Arizona State Sun Devils (12-10, 3-8 Big 12) in a pivotal Big 12 matchup. Both teams are tied in conference standings and seek to break their recent struggles. The Cowboys are slight 1.5-point favorites, with the total set at 143.5–144.5 points .

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Key Insights & Analysis

1. Recent Form

• Oklahoma State: Lost 7 of their last 10 games, including a 72-63 road loss to No. 5 Houston. However, they covered a 21.5-point spread in that game, showing resilience against top-tier defenses .
• Arizona State: Lost 7 of their last 9, including a heartbreaking 71-70 collapse against Kansas State after leading by 16 points. Their defense ranks 36th nationally in efficiency but struggles with turnovers .

1. Statistical Comparison
   
   • Defensive Edge: Arizona State’s defense excels in limiting 3-point shooting (30.5% allowed, 37th nationally) and forces opponents into tough 2-point shots (48.7% allowed) .
2. • Oklahoma State’s Weakness: The Cowboys rank 324th in opposing 2-point percentage (55.6%) and struggle to defend inside the arc .
3. • Key Players Oklahoma State:
     • Marchelus Avery: Leading scorer (12.6 PPG) and primary 3PT threat (1.8 makes/game) .Abou Ousmane: Efficient inside presence (12.0 PPG, 52.5 FG%) .
     Arizona State:
     • BJ Freeman: Team-high 12.9 PPG and versatile contributor .Alston Mason: Coming off a 20-point, 6-assist performance vs. Kansas State .
     Betting Trends
4. • Spread: Arizona State is 12-8-1 ATS this season, covering in 8 of 13 games as underdogs. Oklahoma State is 8-14-0 ATS .
5. • Total: The over is 5-2 in Oklahoma State’s last 7 games, while the under is 12-3 in Arizona State’s last 15 .
   Prediction & Picks
   • Final Score: Arizona State 75, Oklahoma State 71 .The Sun Devils’ defense and superior ATS record make them the lean despite being road underdogs.Spread: Arizona State +1.5 .Total: Over 143.5 .Both teams average 145.4 combined PPG, and Oklahoma State’s fast pace (3rd in Big 12 possessions) could push the total over .
   Key Factors
   • Turnovers: Oklahoma State forces turnovers at a high rate (20.5% defensive turnover rate) but struggles to capitalize due to poor shooting defense .Home Court: The Cowboys are 8-2 at home, but Arizona State has covered in 4 of 5 road games as underdogs .
   Conclusion: Expect a close game decided by Arizona State’s defensive discipline and late-game execution. The over offers value given both teams’ offensive inconsistencies but combined pace trends.

Bovada Odds: Oklahoma State Cowboys -115, Arizona State Sun Devils -105