Niagara Purple Eagles vs. Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers College Basketball Prediction
February 14, 2025 | Gallagher Center, Lewiston, NY | 6:30 PM ET
Key Insights & Analysis
- Team Form & Recent Performance
- Mount St. Mary’s (13-10, 6-6 MAAC)
- Lost 3 of their last 5 games, including a recent 70-67 overtime defeat to Iona .
- Averaging 67.7 points in their last 10 games, with a stronger rebounding presence (33.4 rebounds per game) .
- Key players: Dola Adebayo (13.0 PPG, 6.1 RPG) and Jedy Cordilia (10.3 PPG, 7.7 RPG) lead the offense and defense .
- Niagara (10-14, 5-8 MAAC)
- On a 2-game winning streak, including a 71-60 victory over Canisius .
- Improved defense, allowing 65.5 PPG over their last 4 games .
- Relies on Jaeden Marshall (10.2 PPG) and Josiah Davis (24 points in their latest win) .
- Offensive & Defensive Matchups
- Shooting Efficiency: Niagara shoots 44.9% from the field, slightly above Mount St. Mary’s defensive allowance (42.2%) . However, the Mountaineers excel at limiting 3-pointers (opponents shoot 32.7%) .
- Rebounding: Mount St. Mary’s dominates the boards (34.1 RPG, ranked 75th nationally) compared to Niagara’s 28.0 RPG (346th) . This could create second-chance opportunities.
- Turnovers: Niagara averages 11.4 turnovers per game, while Mount St. Mary’s struggles with 15.0 turnovers .
- Historical Context
- Earlier this season, Mount St. Mary’s defeated Niagara 68-62 in a conference matchup .
- Niagara holds a slight historical edge at home (e.g., 2023 and 2022 wins) .
- Betting Odds & Trends
- Spread: Niagara is favored by -1.5 to -2.5 points .
- Total Points: Set at 135.5–136.5, with mixed predictions. Recent defensive trends suggest an under (both teams allowing <70 PPG recently), but their combined average (138.7 PPG) leans toward the over .
- Computer Prediction: Niagara wins 71-69 but Mount St. Mary’s covers the spread .
Prediction & Picks
- Outcome: Expect a tightly contested game, but Niagara’s home advantage (+6-4 record at home) and momentum from recent wins could edge them ahead. Final score: Niagara 70, Mount St. Mary’s 68 .
- Spread: Mount St. Mary’s (+2.5) to cover .
- Total Points: Lean Under 136.5 due to recent defensive improvements by both teams .
Key Factors to Watch
- Rebounding Battle: Mount St. Mary’s ability to control the boards could neutralize Niagara’s offensive efficiency.
- Turnovers: If Niagara capitalizes on Mount St. Mary’s turnover struggles, they could secure extra possessions.
- 3-Point Shooting: Mount St. Mary’s averages 7.6 threes per game, slightly below Niagara’s allowance (8.1). A strong shooting night could swing the game .
Bovada Odds: Niagara Purple Eagles -120, Mt. St Mary Mountaineers 100