In hypothetical matchups for the 2028 presidential election, Vice President JD Vance and California Governor Gavin Newsom are currently locked in a highly competitive statistical tie, with most polls showing a margin of 1–3 percentage points.
Head-to-Head Polling Results
Recent surveys reflect a polarized electorate with a high number of undecided voters:
- Emerson College (Oct 2025): Vance leads Newsom 46% to 45%, with 10% undecided.
- Zogby Analytics (Jan 2026): Vance leads Newsom 44.6% to 41%, with 14.3% unsure.
- YouGov (Feb 2026): In a contrasting result, Newsom reportedly leads Vance by 8 points (49% to 41%).
- Morning Consult (Nov 2025): Vance holds a slim 42% to 41% edge.
Favorability and Sentiment
- JD Vance: Holds a favorability rating of 46% (with 41% unfavorable), the highest among potential 2028 contenders in recent Emerson polling.
- Gavin Newsom: Seen favorably by 33%–34% and unfavorably by 44%–45%.
- Demographic Leads: Newsom holds a clear advantage among younger voters (18–29), leading Vance 45% to 28% in that bracket.Â
Market Predictions
As of February 2026, prediction markets generally favor Vance over Newsom for the 2028 victory:
- Polymarket: Vance is at 24%–27% chance of winning, while Newsom sits at 17%–20%.
- Kalshi: Vance leads with a 24% chance compared to Newsom’s 21%