Of course, never forget Benjamin Netanyahu influence
1. Partial sanctions relief (High probability: ~80%)
- Multiple reports indicate sanctions relief is already part of the framework being discussed.
- Trump may present it as conditional and reversible rather than permanent.
- This is probably the easiest concession for Washington because it provides Iran with an immediate benefit while preserving U.S. leverage.
2. Access to some frozen Iranian assets (High probability: ~75%)
- Reports mention discussions about releasing frozen Iranian funds.
- Trump could frame this as humanitarian or tied to compliance milestones rather than a blanket release.
3. Delaying the hardest nuclear issues until later talks (High probability: ~70%)
- Recent reporting suggests the emerging framework may postpone detailed negotiations on enrichment levels, stockpiles, and verification.
- This would allow Trump to announce a deal quickly while leaving difficult questions unresolved.
4. Recognition of some civilian nuclear activity (Moderate probability: ~55%)
- Iran’s core position has long been preserving at least some domestic nuclear capability.
- Trump may accept tightly monitored civilian nuclear activities if Iran commits not to pursue nuclear weapons.
Demands Trump is less likely to accept
5. Unrestricted uranium enrichment (Low probability: ~25%)
- Reports consistently indicate the U.S. is demanding stronger nuclear commitments, not weaker ones.
- Trump has repeatedly emphasized preventing an Iranian nuclear weapon.
6. No inspections or verification (Very low probability: ~10%)
- Any agreement Trump signs would almost certainly require some monitoring mechanism.
- Verification is central to the U.S. negotiating position.
7. Immediate end to all U.S. pressure without concessions (Very low probability: <10%)
- Politically, Trump would need to demonstrate that Iran gave up something significant in return.
What we expect by June 30
The most plausible outcome is an interim agreement, not a comprehensive settlement:
| Issue | Prediction |
|---|---|
| Sanctions relief | Partial yes |
| Frozen assets | Partial release |
| Strait of Hormuz | Reopened/guaranteed access |
| Nuclear weapons | Iran formally renounces pursuit |
| Uranium enrichment | Deferred or limited compromise |
| Missile program | Mostly postponed |
| Regional proxies | Mostly postponed |
| Final comprehensive deal | Unlikely by June 30 |
Overall, we’d put the odds at roughly:
- 60%: Interim deal signed or formally announced.
- 25%: Talks continue without a final agreement.
- 15%: Negotiations collapse and tensions escalate again.