Following the top-two jungle primary held on June 2, 2026, Xavier Becerra consolidated the Democratic base to secure his spot in the November general election alongside Trump-endorsed Republican commentator Steve Hilton. Given California’s deeply entrenched Democratic voting majority, political forecasts and prediction markets point overwhelmingly to a Becerra victory.
Candidates
Xavier Becerra
Xavier Becerra is the heavy favorite to win the 2026 California gubernatorial election, with live prediction market odds placing his chances of victory at roughly 88% to 89%.
Polymarket Odds
Xavier Becerra is currently considered the favorite to win the 2026 California gubernatorial election, according to both polling averages and prediction markets.
Current Estimated Odds (June 2026)
Prediction markets such as Kalshi have generally placed Becerra as the clear favorite, with some markets giving him roughly a three-in-four chance of ultimately becoming governor.
Why Becerra Is Favored
1. California’s Democratic Lean
California has voted strongly Democratic in statewide elections for decades. A Democratic nominee begins with a significant structural advantage.
2. Polling Lead
Recent polling averages show Becerra leading Republican candidate Steve Hilton by approximately 20 percentage points, with averages around 55% for Becerra versus 32% for Hilton.
3. Name Recognition and Experience
Becerra previously served as:
- U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services under President Joe Biden
- California Attorney General
- Longtime member of Congress
His extensive statewide and national experience has helped consolidate Democratic support.
Factors That Could Reduce His Chances
- Voter frustration over California’s cost of living, housing affordability, and crime concerns.
- A potentially strong Republican turnout environment during the 2026 midterms.
- Any major campaign controversies or shifts in the national political climate.
Overall Prediction
Unless California’s political environment changes dramatically before November, Becerra enters the general election as the candidate most likely to become California’s next governor.
Steve Hilton
Steve Hilton enters the 2026 California governor’s race as the Republican nominee and clear underdog against Xavier Becerra. California’s strong Democratic lean makes any Republican statewide victory difficult, but Hilton has built a competitive campaign centered on affordability, energy policy, and dissatisfaction with the state’s status quo.
Polymarket Odds
Factors Helping Hilton
1. Anti-establishment message
Hilton has campaigned as an outsider, arguing that California’s high housing costs, taxes, energy prices, and homelessness problems require major change. This message could resonate with independents and dissatisfied voters.
2. Republican base enthusiasm
Hilton has consolidated much of the Republican electorate and advanced comfortably to the general election. He also received the endorsement of President Donald Trump, boosting support among conservative voters.
3. Voter frustration with state conditions
Concerns about affordability, cost of living, and public safety could create an environment more favorable to Republicans than in previous California statewide races.
Factors Working Against Hilton
1. California’s Democratic advantage
Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by roughly two-to-one in California, creating a substantial structural hurdle for any GOP candidate.
2. Polling deficit
Recent surveys show Hilton trailing Becerra by approximately 20 percentage points, with some polls showing Becerra above 50% support.
3. Association with national Republicans
Hilton’s close relationship with President Trump energizes Republican voters but may alienate moderates and independents in a heavily Democratic state.
For Hilton to win, he would likely need:
- Strong Republican turnout.
- Significant gains among independents and moderate Democrats.
- Continued voter dissatisfaction with California’s economic conditions.
- A national political environment strongly favoring Republicans.